L R AS Published on Monday 14 September 2020 - n° 331 - Categories:Thread of the Week

Le Fil de la Semaine n° 331 of September 14

THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

If there were only five texts to read this week :

FRANCE

* The French plan for hydrogen

* The president of SER-Soler is surprised by the lack of relevance of the hydrogen plan

* Schneider prepares the connected, responsible and solar house

THE FILE

* The characteristics of the silicon market (1st part): a general increase in costs

THE WORLD

* The economic situation in the sector in China in the second half of the year

Other interesting articles :

FRANCE

* The Banque des Territoires and Bpifrance launch a €40bn Climate Plan

* The minister caresses solar professionals
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THE FILE

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The characteristics of the silicon market (2nd part): temporarily high prices
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THE WORLD

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The pandemic in the United States has not slowed down the installations of large power plants. Record installations in 2020
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THE PRODUCTS

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IBC panels guaranteed for 50 years

* A follower powered by inflatable bladders
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THE COMPANIES

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LONGi's impressive results in the first half of the year. Net margin of 20

* Considerable half-yearly losses of GCL Poly

* Trina takes advantage of its evolution towards large cells and panels

* 30% more cell deliveries in the first half of the year at Aiko

* 34% growth infirst-half deliveries at Tongwei

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESETITLES

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FRANCE

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The French plan for hydrogen

France has set a hydrogen production capacity target of 6.5 GW in 2030. This strategy will be supported by €7 billion of public funding over ten years, including €2 billion by 2022.

Three priorities have been defined:

- Decarbonise the sector by using electrolysis, rather than fossil fuel-based production. France will launch a project of European interest for hydrogen, similar to that for battery production. Electrolysers the size of a gigawatt must be planned.

- Develop public transport (trains) and utility vehicles (buses, dump trucks) using hydrogen. A 350 million euro call for tenders for innovative projects in this field will be organised this year. 275 million will be used for the acquisition of large-scale innovative industrial installations.

The €3.4 billion distributed between now and 2023 is divided 54% for decarbonisation, 27% for transport and 19% for R&D and innovation.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/10/france-wants-6-5-gw-of-hydrogen-capacity-by-2030/

PV Magazine of 10 September

EDITOR'S NOTE X. Daval, President of SER-Soler, points out (cf. The President of SER-Soler is surprised at the lack of relevance of the hydrogen plan) that before dealing with storing hydrogen, it is a question of producing it. He emphasised that this involves either using fossil fuels or using renewable energies. He is surprised that nothing is planned to decarbonise production.

This plan clearly shows the influence of pressure groups rather than a clear and reasonable strategy: what will be done with production facilities if there is no renewable energy? Will fossil fuels be used? Will this decarbonise the economy? Logic dictates that we should develop solar or wind power production before developing hydrogen and its storage.


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The Banque des Territoires and Bpifrance launch a €40bn Climate Plan

The Banque des Territoires and Bpifrance are launching a €40bn Climate Plan for the period 2020-2024.

This Climate Plan is based on three pillars :

  • Support for the development of renewable energies (ENR)and contribution to the growth of international champions,
  • Accelerating the transition of companies and territories with financial and support solutions,
  • Massive funding and support for innovation in "greentechs" and in sustainable and resilient networks to find EEO technological solutions.

This plan complements that of Caisse des Dépôts.

The Climate plan provides operational financing and support solutions for local authorities and companies.

Objective Double the funding dedicated to renewable energies and contribute to the emergence of French champions. 14.5 billion will be deployed for the growth of renewable energies (RE) with a target of 8.8 GW of installed capacity in France and for export. Support will be provided for innovation in this field. The Banque des Territoires will invest €900m in the production of renewable energy over 5 years, including €40m for the production of green hydrogen in the territories.

BPI France will promote the growth of companies in the sector by pre-financing projects and co-financing investment programmes for a total of €12.7 billion. The investment fund (Fonds France Investissement Energie Environnement - FIEE) dedicated to ENR developers will contribute €150m. They will be able to apply for export credits to finance their internationalisation out of a total of €275m between now and 2024.

https://tecsol.blogs.com/mon_weblog/2020/09/la-banque-des-territoires-et-bpifrance-lancent-un-plan-climat-de-40-mds.html

Tecsol of the 9th September

Editor's note It is clear that financial efforts are being made to increase renewable energies in France. Should they be brought closer to solar connections (in particular), which are failing to multiply despite increases in the allocation of calls for tender? Should we believe in this new initiative? Will there be a before and after?


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The minister caresses solar professionals

At the International Solar Alliance summit, the French Minister for Ecological Transition recalled France's policy on solar energy. In particular, she stated: "Faced with the greatest challenge in the history of humanity, we need solar energy more than ever to provide clean, green and renewable energy. Let's not forget that its recent success is based on strong political commitments and favourable regulatory frameworks, which have made solar energy a very competitive source of energy .

"And we must continue. France is committed to doing so. We have put in place a multiannual energy programme that supports the development of solar energy. We plan to double the installed capacity of our national photovoltaic park by 2023. And then double it over the next five years.

https://tecsol.blogs.com/mon_weblog/2020/09/barbara-pompili-veut-doubler-le-parc-solaire-actuel-dici-2023.html

Tecsol of the 9th September

Editor's note What should we believe in the minister's speeches: the one intended to reassure professionals in the solar sector (above), or her plan to develop hydrogen which neglects to give the necessary acceleration to renewable energy installations to activate the catalysts? For this hydrogen plan, she had indicated, according to AFP, that non-carbon energies would be used in the same way as low-carbon energies, i.e. nuclear power! If we don't considerably increase solar or wind installations in France, we will have to resort to new EPRs that EDF mentions whenever it can.

* The president of SER-Soler is astonished by the lack of relevance of the hydrogen plan

The CEO of Kilowattsol and President of SER-Soler is astonished that the French government's recovery plan, which allocates 30 billion euros to the energy transition, did not see fit to mention and even privilege photovoltaic energy. He adds that solar energy will have a central place in the energy of the 21st century according to all the experts, except for the French government!

He stresses that all digital devices need distributed electrical infrastructures. We must therefore be prepared to supply these devices with the energy they need. He calls for developing the production of the photovoltaic sector in France and to avoid importing all the panels from China because whoever has the production also has the use. Emphasising research without having the manufacturing tools means condemning research in the long run. Emphasising storage using hydrogen, as the government wants to do, means forgetting that storage is the way to use the energy produced when you want it. Therefore, you have to think about production if you want to store it.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/09/solar-is-essential-to-build-the-france-of-2030/

PV Magazine of 9 September

Editor's note The common sense of X. Daval is to be underlined. The desire to give priority to hydrogen is certainly useful but meets the expectations of pressure groups. The important thing is to develop the installation of panels, but also their manufacture. The lack of homogeneity and relevance in the government strategy is impressive. Is it still linked to the weight of EDF as an energy producer?

We have the answer in the AFP report, which mentions: "Hydrogen can become "clean" by being produced notably by electrolysis of water, provided that electricity from renewable sources or at least low carbon sources is used". This means that EDF with its nuclear power stations intends to provide the energy necessary for electrolysis. This explains why there is no stimulation of renewable energy production. We want to leave solar or wind energy out of the hydrogen production!


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Schneider prepares the connected, responsible and solar house

Schneider Electric unveils its ambitions to transform the connected home into a responsible, solar-powered home

At IFA 2020, Schneider Electric presented its vision of the house of the future combining sustainable development, safety and efficiency. Schneider Electric unveiled an evolution of its technologies for the connected home with its new sensors called Wiser, which monitor the temperature of each room and indicate to the consumer the energy performance and CO2 impact of their home, all driven by the Wiser application. This tailored solution, which relies primarily on solar energy, will transform the current housing stock into connected and responsible homes.

Using its expertise in the digital transformation of energy management and automation, Schneider Electric presented its "responsible house of the future". This is based on three new products that can be easily and cheaply installed in existing houses. They are driven by the Wiser application

Power Tag (at the announced cost of 50 €), is a "plug and play" sensor that connects to the electrical panel. It indicates to the owners their energy consumption room by room and, above all, how this energy is used, not just consumed. The occupants of the dwellings can set monthly consumption targets and receive an alert if the Wiser system predicts that the target will be exceeded. This reduces consumption and avoids unpleasant surprises on bills.

Consumers equipped with solar panels also have the opportunity to optimise their consumption by monitoring their solar energy production levels. Solar energy users can optimise their consumption of renewable energy and ensure that their panels are operating at maximum efficiency to further reduce their carbon footprint.

Acti9 Active (at a price of 60 to 80 €) enhances electrical safety and reliability in homes. It warns when an anomaly is detected

The efficient room temperature control system (kit from 150 to 250 €) ensures precise piloting thanks to artificial intelligence and automatic learning. It can thus reduce electricity bills by up to 50% without loss of comfort. Its unique room-by-room control function enables heating systems to be managed more efficiently by accurately assessing the characteristics of each room rather than for the whole house.

A second "open window detection" function will soon be added to the product. If a window remains open, the heating is stopped, the user is warned and the system waits until the window is closed before restarting the heating. These functions have two types of benefits: considerable electricity savings and reduced climate impact.

Schneider is preparing for a doubling of electricity demand in the coming decades (due to the connected home and electric vehicles). Houses will have to reduce their consumption and achieve a positive energy situation. The Wiser range provides an unprecedented level of information on domestic energy consumption. People will know how they consume their energy. They will be able to reduce their consumption without changing their lifestyle. Schneider is getting closer to the idea of the responsible home.

By combining sensors and data analysis with the power of connectivity, these Wiser products form a complete ecosystem that will transform the residential home.

Prices and availability of innovations :

PowerTag: 50 euros

Acti9 Active: 60 to 80 euros

Intelligent temperature control system: kits from 150 to 250 euros

The products will be available between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, depending on the country.

https://tecsol.blogs.com/mon_weblog/2020/09/schneider-electric-d%C3%A9voile-ses-ambitions-pour-transformer-la-maison-connect%C3%A9e-en-maison-responsable-.html

Tecsol of 8 September

Editor's note Are the prices indicated those of factory-made products, or the public price to the consumer?

Beyond this presentation, it shows that Schneider is already preparing for a new business niche, that of the responsible home. It is likely that new developments are under way to expand this future activity. It is rare to find such a great strategy in such a large company.
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THE SUBSIDIARY

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Characteristics of the silicon market (1st part): a general rise in costs

The price of polysilicon should remain high for six months, but the supply will increase.

The solar sector experienced two shocks, one on 21 July with the explosion at the GCL Poly factory in Xinjiang; it put a production capacity of 50,000 tonnes out of service for an estimated three to nine months. The other in August,

with the shutdown at Tongwei of production at its 20,000-tonne polysilicon plant in Sichuan (China), following flood warnings. On1 July, there were minor fires at Daqo that temporarily shut down 6,000 tonnes of production capacity. These production cuts explain why the first half's production surplus, linked to the coronavirus, was quickly absorbed, and why prices rose by almost half in two or three weeks. This destroyed production capacity compares to the half a million tonnes produced in China per year.

In the short term, prices will remain high for at least six months as upstream suppliers adapt to downstream cell and module production capacity. Module prices in China will rise in the medium term and remain high due to the recovery in demand and the temporary disruption of supply. Most supply constraints will peak in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 and continue into the first half of 2021.

Beyond these one-off incidents, there is a sufficient supply of solar-grade silicon. Less and less silicon is being consumed. Now, 4 grams per watt, or a third of the amount of fifteen years ago.

As long as GCL has not resumed production, or until new installations come on stream, there will be upward pressure on prices. With this surge in prices, manufacturers are recouping profit margins that were undermined by the 2019 downturn. Producers have modified their sales contracts: they offer long-term contracts with monthly price adjustments, which gives them the possibility to adapt their prices to market developments.

In the event of increased supply problems, GCL-Poly and other suppliers can postpone certain maintenance operations to meet short-term demand, thus limiting the supply shortfall.

According to Chinese media reports, GCL-Poly plans to add 20,000 tonnes of new capacity this year, Tongwei 10,000 tonnes and Dongfang 30,000 tonnes, which will more than offset the impact of the commissioning of these facilities. They say that the rapid expansion of solar capacity in China will lead to additional demand for polysilicon from 2021 onwards. Some are planning further production expansions despite the decline in industry use.

Tongwei already plans to add 35,000 tonnes of new capacity in 2021 and about 70,000 tonnes each year in 2022 and 2023. However, other suppliers have not yet announced any capacity increases, perhaps for fear of influencing market demand, provoking a new cycle of falling prices and risking possible plant closures. These capacity increases would be commissioned at the end of the year or even postponed to the following year.

The author relativises the weight of GCL in Chinese production: the production stoppage (50,000 to 70,000 tonnes) represents about 7 to 8% of normal Chinese polysilicon consumption, and not 10% of world capacity as some media suggest (500,000 tonnes produced in China and 150,000 tonnes imported).

https://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/polysilicon-pricing-expected-to-remain-rocky-for-six-months-but-more-supply-is-on-the-way

PV Tech of 8 September


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The characteristics of the silicon market (2nd part): temporarily high prices

The silicon supply problems of July-August are having an impact on the demand for panels and especially on developers. The rise in prices can make projects unprofitable (the price of silicon has risen by 49% over the low point of the pandemic period). However, the price of silicon should remain high for six months. A sustainable price of $10/kg would be unsustainable for the industry, which has adapted to low-cost panels.

The price increase seems temporary. It follows an explosion and a flood. It should be remembered that the production of GCL Poly had already decreased. During the summer there were also maintenance operations by other producers. Nevertheless, elsewhere, production site closures are multiplying. South Korea's OCI shut down two production units in February. Only 6,500 tonnes of the initial 52,000 tonnes of capacity remain in service. In February, Hanwha Solutions stopped production. In the United States, REC stopped production, Wacker suffered a fire and is targeting semiconductors. Hemlock withdrew from a new plant.

For the time being, it is estimated that no suppliers are expected to experience supply shortages. On the other hand, high prices are possible. Faced with this, buyers may defer their purchases or pass on their costs to facility owners.

Even without these exceptional situations, the price of silicon and panels would have started to recover because both had reached a low point during the health crisis and because plant closures had occurred.

Other products needed for photovoltaics are also on the rise: glass, because the two panes of glass that surround the panels are doubling demand. Aluminium prices for panel frames are recovering. Silver paste is being hit by silver prices, which have more than doubled since their recent March low to over $27 an ounce. Supplies of EVA/POE are currently tight as suppliers seek to source components compatible with large panel sizes.

These increases are supported by the strong demand expected in the Chinese market in the second half of the year, by the general price increase after the health crisis, as demand is now recovering, and by the increase in the size of wafers and cells.

With these price increases and the health crisis, global 2020 installations should remain very close to those of 2019. 2021 should be a brighter year.

https://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/how-long-can-these-polysilicon-price-spikes-go-on

PV Tech of 9 September
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THE WORLD

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The economic situation in the sector in China in the second half of the year

As the period of power plant construction begins in China, the price of panels rises in conjunction with supply problems. Prices could reach $0.259 / W which could discourage developers.

This year, some principals have issued their tenders earlier than in July and August, when the major power generation groups issue their calls for tenders for completion by the end of the year. This is the usual seasonality. A volume of 20 GW would have been proposed, but the developers would be reluctant to commit to a start date and especially to a completion date.

The developers are looking for prices for the panels. Some will postpone the commissioning even if it means losing the 2020 tariff in order to obtain cheaper panels. Most of the major players in the market should complete the connection this year, as they have a means of exerting pressure, even on the major panel producers.

This year, the grant programme has tendered 26 GW, while the fair-price projects have reached a volume of 33 GW. This indicates that construction in the solar sector will be difficult in the second half of the year.

As a result, there is uncertainty about which projects will actually be completed this year. This uncertainty leads IHS to reduce its 2020 forecast to 40 or 41 GW from 45 GW previously. The figure that will be reached depends on the industry's capacity to supply the panels requested at a reasonable price.

https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/china-facing-turbulent-solar-build-out-season-as-module-price-hikes-supply-issues-loom

PV Tech of 7 September


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The pandemic in the United States has not slowed down the installations of large power plants. Record installations in 2020

The US housing market was affected by the pandemic in the second quarter, but less than initially feared. Most major projects were completed.

3.5 GW were brought online during the second quarter.

Installers no longer able to sell by physical contact, or door-to-door, have set up online meetings accompanied by price reductions.

Despite this, residential solar installations fell by almost 25% between the first and second quarter of 2020. This is an average because the biggest falls were recorded in the states where work stoppage orders were the most restrictive. Installers present contrasting results: SunPower installations fell by nearly 30% from the first to the second quarter (Editor's note This is still the worst of these few examples.). Sunrun by 20%, Vivint Solar by 10%, Sunnova by 9%.

The health crisis has disproportionately affected low-wage and hourly workers, who are less likely to own a home and thus have access to residential solar energy.

While during the pandemic (in the second quarter) a decline of 9 per cent was expected compared to forecasts made before the health crisis, the SEIA now expects a decline of 6 per cent. The United States should install 18 GW this year, 37% more than in 2019.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-residential-solar-ends-first-full-quarter-of-pandemic-with-near-25-drop-in-installations

GreenTech Media of 10 September

Editor's note This sharp increase in installations is due to the phasing out of the federal tax credit, which set a deadline for obtaining tax benefits. It is not an indication of a medium-term trend.
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THE PRODUCTS

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IBC panels guaranteed for 50 years

50 year guarantee on panels made in the USA, with the Zebra cell offered by a newcomer, Violet Power.

This cell was developed by the German institute ISC Konstanz. It has a low cost. It uses IBC architecture, a floating front emitter and silk-screen printed metallisation on 152.4 mm wide N-type monocrystalline wafers. The Zebra IBC cell would have a conversion efficiency of more than 24% as there would be no loss in the passage between the cell and the panel. Wafer production operations will be carried out in partnership with a Northern European wafer producer with direct connections to REC Silicon.

Violet Power's first state-of-the-art integrated manufacturing facility will be based in Moses Lake, across the street from REC Silicon's high-purity silicon plant and in close proximity to several Guardian Glass production facilities in the state,

The company will have an initial capacity of 300 MW of IBC cells and panels using Zebra technology. A capacity of 500 MW of cells and panels is expected by the end of 2021. It will use Meyer Burger's HJT technology.

Violet Power intends to revolutionise the photovoltaic industry by producing high-efficiency IBC (Interdigitated Back Contact) solar cells in-house.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/game-changer-violet-power-to-offer-50-year-solar-panel-warranty-with-us-made-ibc-technology

PV Tech of 8 September


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A follower powered by inflatable bladders

The American Sunfolding has a tracker that uses air to orient the panels. Instead of using a motor, it uses two pneumatically powered inflatable bladders. During the course of the day, one of the bladders is gradually inflated. It gradually tilts the panel in the direction of the sun.

The system consists of a post, an actuator (which replaces the motor, the bearing and a gearbox) and racks on which the panel rests. This system is much lighter than mechanical systems. It also improves the efficiency of material transport, maintenance and installation time, while allowing installations on difficult terrain.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/09/sunfolding-looks-to-disrupt-the-tracker-industry-with-air-pneumatics/

PV Magazine of 10 September

Editor's note The system is interesting, but will the bladder or the pipes hold up over time and not tear with the inflation and retraction?
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THE COMPANIES

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LONGi's impressive results in the first half of the year. Net margin of 20%.

In thefirst half of the year, LONGi achieved sales of $2,933 million, of which $1,818 million (or 62%) was generated in China and $1,114 million (38%) abroad. Operating revenue increases by 43% over 2019. Net income reaches $600 million, more than double that of early 2019, despite lower wafer prices during the period. Net margin reaches 20.5%! This is due to a rapid change in the size of the wafers that were produced in the first half of the year.

Wafer sales were made outside the group for $360 million (+15%) and by internal use for $217 million.

Cell sales to third parties amounted to 338 MW (+15%).

The sale of panels using large cell formats reached 6,578 MW (+106%). Internal uses absorbed 222 MW.

The annual production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers reached 55 GW at the end of the first half of 2020. The production of monocrystalline silicon wafers reached approximately 4,400 billion pieces, an increase of 54% compared to the previous year.

Production capacity for monocrystalline photovoltaic panels reached 25 GW at the end of June. Production was 8,002 MW, an increase of 125% over the previous year.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-defies-gravity-with-record-revenue-profit-and-module-shipments-in-fir

PV Tech of August 29th

NDLR These figures are impressive. The most spectacular is the net margin, which exceeds 20% of sales. This is testimony to an excellent industrial organisation.


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Considerable half-yearly losses of GCL Poly

GCL-Poly reported a loss of $281 million in the first half of 2020, due to a 51% reduction in polysilicon production and historically low average selling prices due to weak demand. This loss is well above the $217 million previously envisaged.

The silicon and wafer portion incurred a loss of $296 million.

GCL-Poly is undertaking major changes to its silicon and wafer production facilities as the market is rapidly moving towards P-type monocrystalline requirements and N.CfGCL Poly isinvesting heavily in the production of silicon

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gcl-poly-posts-us281-million-loss-in-1h-2020-as-production-shifts-impact-revenue-and-profits

PV Tech of September1st

read also GCL Poly invests heavily in silicon production


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Trina takes advantage of its evolution towards large cells and panels

In thefirst half of the year, Trina Solar generated sales of €1,500m (up 17%), corresponding to the delivery of 5.9 GW (up 37% on last year). Net profit amounted to €60 million (up 245% over 2019), giving a net margin of 4%. One of the reasons for this improved margin is the production of large cells (210 mm) and high-power panels (500 W launched in February and even 600 W in July).

100m was invested in R&D in six months, corresponding to an investment rate of 6.7% of sales. The company holds 812 patents, including 310 innovation patents.

The panels in production have an average efficiency of 22.8% to 22.9%; Trina Solar's HJT cell has an efficiency of 23.8%.

The company will install numerous production lines using large cells and panels.

The total cell production capacity will be 26 GW by the end of 2021. Large 210 mm cells are expected to account for about 70% of this capacity. The panel production potential would reach 22 GW by the end of 2020 and 50 GW by the end of 2021.

https://tecsol.blogs.com/mon_weblog/2020/09/trina-solar-croissance-de-245-en-glissement-annuel-de-ses-b%C3%A9n%C3%A9fices-nets-dans-ses-r%C3%A9sultats-semestri.html

Tecsol of September 7


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30% more cell deliveries in the first half of the year at Aiko

In thefirst half of the year, Aiko Solar, the world's second largest cell manufacturer behind Tongwei, increased its sales by 30% to $268 million. Its net profit fell by 68% (to $8 million) due to the drop in the average price of cells and efforts to continue production during the health crisis. Production capacity was increased from 9.2 GW at the end of 2019 to 15 GW at the end of June and is expected to reach 22 GW at the end of 2020. The company has a capacity of 5 GW producing 180-210 mm cells, 8 GW producing 166 mm cells and 2 GW producing smaller formats.

In the first half of the year, the company invested $20 millionin R&D on new generation cells (heterojunction, TOPCon, IBC, HBC, etc.). This represents 7.5% of sales.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/aiko-solars-profits-suffer-from-solar-cell-price-declines-but-revenue-up-30-in-1h-2020

PV Tech of September 9

Editor's note The increase in deliveries of cells for both Aiko and Tongwei (34% growth indeliveries in the first half at Tongwei) is well above market growth. The gain in market share is rapid and signals a gradual concentration of producers.


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34% growth in deliveries in the first half of the year at Tongwei

Tongwei, the Chinese silicon and cell manufacturer, delivered 7.7 GW of cells in the first half (+34% over 2019). Sales stagnated last year at $855 million.

The company is increasing its wafer requirements to boost production. LONGi will supply an additional 1 billion wafers, bringing Tongwei's order to 2.6 billion. The forecast capacity of 40 GW of cells to be manufactured in 2021 has just been raised to 60 GW. Two factories with a total of 15 GW will come into service next year.

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/tongwei-secures-extra-1-billion-wafer-supply-from-longi-as-targets-over-40gw-cell-capacity-in-2021

PV Tech of 12 September

Editor's note The health crisis? Which crisis? The increase in sales is 34%. On the other hand, the drop in prices cancelled out this increase in deliveries. We don't know the net profit for this period, i.e. whether the increase in production expenses linked to volume could be absorbed by the turnover.see Aiko: 30% more cell deliveries in the first half of the year at Aiko

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