l'Actualité du Solaire

Market awaits post-holiday recovery amid disparate supply chain price trends

Silicon :

The volume of silicon production in February will reach 73 to 74 GW, down 2 to 3% on January due to the reduced number of working days and because manufacturers are continuing to increase capacity and improve the quality of their products.

During the New Year holidays,

ingot manufacturers will maintain or even increase their plant utilisation rates, which will ensure high silicon availability. The short-term price trend is increasingly linked to the supply-demand relationship, as demand underpins prices. The other pillar keeping silicon prices high is the surge in N-type wafer production, as there is strong demand for high-quality silicon.

The dollar price of silicon is based on delivered prices from three non-Chinese manufacturers. Sporadic orders at high prices are rarely taken into account, given the scarcity of the resource and the fact that most orders are long-term.

Wafers :

Manufacturers are betting on strong demand after the festive season. This is why production capacity is being maintained. As a result, the mismatch between supply and demand that would have pushed up prices is no longer likely. As cell manufacturers have reduced their production rates during the holidays, a build-up of stocks may occur after the holidays.

The price has reached 2.05 RMB/piece for P-type M10 inserts and 2.80 RMB/piece for G12 inserts.

The price of N-type M10 inserts was 2 RMB/piece (rising to 2.05 RMB/piece if manufacturers deliver on time) and 3.10 RMB/piece for the G12 format.

Thanks to the significant increase in power, the price per watt of N-type M10 wafers was 8-9% lower than that of P-type wafers, which means better value for money.

The cells :

Manufacturers stopped or reduced capacity over the holidays. Some will upgrade PERC capacity while others will upgrade existing TOPCon production lines with LECO or other processes that improve efficiency and reduce costs. Recently, LECO laser-assisted sintering technology has attracted attention. Incorporating this laser process can effectively improve the conversion efficiency of TOPCon cells by more than 0.3%, resulting in a power gain of 5-10W. The technology is likely to become a standard process in the first quarter of 2024.

The price of P-type cells is holding steady at 0.38 RMB/W for M10 and G12 cells. The price for non-integrated manufacturers is 0.39 RMB/piece.

The price of N-type M10 cells was stable at 0.46 - 0.47 RMB/W. The price differential with the P type stabilised at between 0.08 and 0.09 RMB/W. G12 HJT cells saw their price vary considerably at 0.6-0.7 RMB/W for high efficiency cells.

Cell price trends will remain stable in the short term despite significantly reduced production, even rising by 0.01-0.02 RMB/W after the holidays if production cuts exceed expectations.

Panels :

Manufacturers have taken few orders recently.

The price of PERC panels has stabilised at 0.88-0.9 RMB/W. The price differential between PERC and TOPCon panels has narrowed to 0.05-0.08 RMB/W, as the price of TOPCon panels has fallen to 0.95-0.98 RMB/W.

Prices for HJT panels were between RMB1.15 and RMB1.25/W in China, and remained between $0.150 and $0.170/W in non-Chinese markets.

With some factories shutting down for the holidays for ten to fifteen days, global panel production for February is expected to fall by 2 to 3 GW, compared with initial estimates of 37 - 38 GW. Manufacturers still have no idea what demand will be in March. This is why medium- and long-term prices have continued to show signs of falling. Overall, panel prices are unlikely to rebound after the holidays, remaining in a lower range.

https://www.infolink-group.com/energy-article/pv-spot-price-20240207

InfoLink February 7, 2024