L R AS Published on Tuesday 7 December 2021 - n° 385 - Categories:Thread of the Week
le Fil de la Semaine n°385
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
Ademe presents its latest study on the French energy future. As it is difficult to imagine the future, Ademe takes up the ideas that seem to be the consensusAdeme is pursuing its mission to shed light on the future of French energy. It follows the dominant ideas, that of the emergence of electricity as the majority energy source in 2050, with the need to captureCO2
Ademe has published its study "Transition(s) 2050. Choisir maintenant. Acting for the climate".
* *
THE TREND
What is the likely evolution of panel prices in the next 12 to 18 months?
Are we entering a new era, or will the decline in panel prices soon resume?
* *
The IEA is optimistic about global solar installations in 2021. Looking ahead to the coming year, it notes the significant increase in the price of components, be it panels, steel, copper, ... She fears that there will be sustained price inflation, which will be countered by higher interest rates, leading to higher financing costs. The higher installation costs of power plants could thus make photovoltaic installations less attractive. Is this just a fear, or an analysis of what will happen in 2022?
The figures for the increase in sea freight costs are breathtaking. It is no longer clear whether it is five times more than a year ago, eight times, ten times more? Some say that the Chinese ports are congested and slowing down the rotation of ships. Others put the blame on the rapid recovery of world trade, which is running up against transport capacities that have not changed and have even decreased during the pandemic. Some argue that containers remained in destination ports and did not return to ports of shipment... It is difficult to determine who is right. It is difficult to determine who is right. Only after having obtained a significant revaluation of the cost of transport, the shipping companies are not ready to lower their prices. There would have to be too many ships and therefore a lack of freight for prices to fall. However, it takes several half-years for the ships to be built. This gives the shipping companies time to take advantage of the situation.
Maritime freight rates are not expected to fall in 2022. In 2023?
* *
Climate protests lead to a change in attitude towards renewable energy in Italy
Like other countries, Italy has set targets for reducing greenhouse gases and must increase the share of renewable energy. Meeting the target requires that applications for future power plants be approved by the authorities. But the queue is desperately long, indicating a slow pace of approval. It seems that some Italian regions are more receptive to changes in favour of RE and are accepting new projects. Another way to reduce opposition is to agree with the population
Italy would change its attitude towards RE and facilitate PV
* *
MANUFACTURERS:
Meyer Burger announces the shutdown of a production line due to the increase in sick leave
The manufacturer is facing supply disruptions that are limiting its production. It is now facing a wave of pandemics in its factories, forcing it to shut down part of its production lines. So are these dark times? It also seems that this is, in a different way, comparable to other panel manufacturers. This leaves room for it to establish itself in the photovoltaic landscape. Indeed, the longer it perseveres at a time when Chinese manufacturers are experiencing supply or transport difficulties, the more Meyer Burger sets up its commercial networks, hires its teams and increases its production rates. Every cloud has a silver lining.
In spite of its present difficulties, Meyer Burger is benefiting from a very favourable context
* *
JinkoSolar's third quarter results are modest
Third quarter sales are down on 2020. JinkoSolar blames logistical problems for its inability to achieve growth. The company is taking advantage of this to set up a production base in Vietnam in order to be able to export to the US without difficulty. This stability during the quarter contrasts with competitors who had increased their sales significantly. The company intends to make up for this in 2022 with a strong expansion.
Logistical problems and port blockages force JinkoSolar to reduce its 2021 forecast by 5 GW
* *
Socomec presents its activity which is essential for the operation of storage batteries
Socomec is a specialist in the field of batteries. It is therefore the essential cog in the storage system as it makes the batteries operational. The development of intermittent renewable energies is giving it a growing business because its products are used during the production of energy, before it is injected into the grid, in the management of the energy flow.The development of intermittent renewable energies is giving it a growing business as its products are used in the production of energy, before it is injected into the grid, in the day-to-day management of energy as batteries can regulate the grid to reduce demand and finally to provide energy in the event of a power failure.
By preparing the storage management cabinets in the factory, production becomes more organised, more productive and more efficient.
* *
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT :
Is the maritime domain (lakes and oceans) the New Frontier of photovoltaics?
Conflicts of use are prompting the search for areas other than agricultural land to install solar panels. Agri-voltaics is a partial answer because it poses other problems, especially cost. The reaction of the inhabitants who refuse the presence of a solar power plant in front of them creates another kind of obstacle. There are still lakes (where the water is calm) and especially seas, but the agitation of the waves and the often violent wind create contingencies that are still far from being resolved. Hence the various and varied experiments. There is the possibility of creating rigid assemblies to pass through the waves, or of laying thin layers on the water to adapt to the variations of the water. We are still looking for the best formula. After that, it will be necessary to determine where to place these assemblies because maritime navigation, coastal navigation and the difficulty of indicating where these panels are located will create another difficulty...
The tests for the installation of panels at sea follow one another
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L R AS Published on Monday 29 November 2021 - n° 384 - Categories:Thread of the Week
le Fil de la Semaine n°384
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
Photovoltaic unions refer to the Council of State on the legality of the decrees and orders modifying the 2006-2010 tariffs
As the first tariff modification notices are sent out by the Administration, the photovoltaic unions are referring the matter to the Council of State to highlight serious irregularities in the decrees and orders. The Council of State will have to give its opinion before these first notices are validated
Appeals to the Council of State against the revision of the 2006-2010 tariffs
* *
Comparison of RE/nuclear production costs in France is in line with global analyses
Worldwide information on kilowatt-hour prices corresponds to what is happening in France: nuclear power plants already installed have a production cost barely higher than solar and wind kWh. On the other hand, new installations are very expensive, which makes the use of nuclear power unaffordable.
* *
More than 2 megawatts installed in nine months in France. Never before seen!
For the first time, solar installations in France will have exceeded 2 GW in a single year. Is this an indication that the high volumes are going to be put into operation for a long time, or is it the consequence of the lock-in in 2020 that has postponed the connections to 2021. We will soon find out in 2022.
2 GW installed in France in nine months
* *
R AS Published on Monday 22 November 2021 - n° 383 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n° 383
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
French panel manufacturers have either chosen originality and the difficulty that goes with it, or the standard product but there is Chinese competition!
As a result of French ingenuity, two companies have developed their own technology and seem to have no equivalent in the rest of the world. This is both a good thing because there are no aggressive competitors. It is also an obstacle to development, because there is no knock-on effect on the two French companies, which have to win over client after client, proving each time that their product is valid, efficient and useful. This reinforces the difficulties of the French champions who are progressing little by little by becoming more and more known. Only their emergence is slow. The third technology is that of crystalline silicon, but here the competition is tough because it comes from Chinese manufacturers who do everything to reduce the profit margins of French manufacturers. The latter then have a hard time finding their customers because all the big contracts are snapped up by the Chinese. Finally, these few silicon panel manufacturers manage to survive. Their real hope would be to obtain a niche market in which they could flourish (a little or a lot) away from the Chinese competitors.
French PV is focusing on three different technologies: PV+thermal, organic film, silicon panel
* *
Calls for tender follow one another, as do the results of these operations. They have taken on a repetitive character, even if the result is feverishly awaited by the companies concerned.
The result of the tenth tranche of the 700 MW tender was published on 10 November. The ten tranches cover 5.8 GW over five years, or an average of 1.2 GW per tranche.
Finergreen's analysis of the CRE4.10 call for tenders (ground-mounted installations)
* *
An international group has examined the progress of the energy transition in a number of countries
The result of an international study, the text presents the points of improvement that France must follow to adapt to the conditions of the energy transition. It is often useful to consider carefully the foreign view of our country. On the whole, France, like Germany, the United Kingdom or Switzerland, is in the middle of the transition path if we consider socio-political support, the capacity to exploit new technologies or new economic models, and the implementation of flexibility.
The state of France in RE and energy management
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AS Published on Monday 15 November 2021 - n° 382 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Le Fil de la Semaine n°382.
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The President of the Republic announces new nuclear reactors
On 9 November, the President of the Republic took everyone by surprise by declaring himself in favour of relaunching the French nuclear programme. Is this his conviction? Is it to launch the debate in the public arena? Is it a campaign statement to win votes in the upcoming presidential elections? All the hypotheses are formulated. But the president has divided French opinion into two camps: the pro-nuclear ones, who loudly approve and see the end of a long period of obscurity in which no new plant orders appeared. The pro-renewables do not understand this profession of faith because they are convinced that the price of a kilowatt of solar or wind power has become cheaper than a nuclear kWh, that EDF is struggling to develop its own renewable energies, and that it is not the only one to be concerned.EDF is struggling to develop the few EPRs under construction (Flamanville, Hickley Point in England, and the one in Finland) that are not being completed, and that the national electricity company does not have the means to pay for new reactors. So why?
E. Macron's revival of nuclear power: a mere electoral statement?
* *
The time for promotional or advertising speeches has arrived
With six months to go before the presidential elections, all the ministerial cabinets are starting to pack their boxes to make room. While sorting out, we find plans or projects that have not yet been used. So this is an opportunity to make nice speeches, to make friends by telling them what they want to hear, and to make proposals for two, three or five years. With a thirty-year horizon, it looks better in the picture because it shows vision! So the Minister of Transition declares her interest in photovoltaics, her ardent desire to develop this form of energy, and sets a framework for 2028. What will she do about it?
Ms Pompili is making statements that are not binding on her because of the upcoming elections
AS Published on Monday 8 November 2021 - n° 381 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°381
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
As she is about to leave, the minister releases a long-term PV development plan
A few months before her departure from the Ministry of Energy Transition, Ms Pompili has come up with a plan for photovoltaic energy that should have been presented much earlier, as it will not be her who will be responsible for the development of the solar industry. The plan should have been presented much earlier, as she will not be the one to implement it, with all the risks of it being shelved by the new minister, who will have his or her own vision of the future for renewables.
Announcement by the Minister of a major plan for photovoltaics
A few months before her departure, the Minister proposes a long-term plan!
* *
The debate on the future of energy in France is not over
The Negawatt collective, which is hostile to nuclear power, advocates the massive development of renewable energies accompanied by a reduction in energy demand. What is certain is that the publication of the France of the Future plan has given rise to numerous comments, some in favour of nuclear power, others in favour of renewable energy. There is a real split in opinion in France.
The Négawatt collective intervenes in the debate launched by RTE
* *
AS Published on Tuesday 2 November 2021 - n° 380 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°380
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The decree aiming at the revision of contracts concluded between 2006 and 2010 is published
The Official Journal has published the text of the decree 2021-1385 concerning the contracts of more than 250 kW concluded during the period 2006-2010
The text calling into question the contracts of the period 2006-2010
* *
RTE favours its interest and the absence of change in its organisation, by choosing nuclear power
The government has played well. It has suggested, unless it has asked a third party, in this case RTE (Réseau de transport d'électricité), to carry out a study on the electrical future of France. The conclusions should not be surprising: either there is nuclear power, which maintains the organisation of RTE as it is, with its functions, its centralisation and its privileged role, or renewable energies are promoted, with the consequence of anarchy that will mess up the French electrical organisation. For the productions will be decentralised, uncontrollable and intermittent. RTE would then have the task of valorising small quantities of decentralised energy, of trying to aggregate it and also of sending it back to the areas that would need it. This option would require a rethink of the French organisation and, more seriously, of the structure of RTE. This option must not be retained!
Consequently, and contrary to all independent international analyses, RTE asserts that nuclear power plants will be more profitable than production by renewable energies. Even EDF's near-failure in the development of the Flamanville plant or the one in Finland has not alerted RTE to EDF's ability to master the technique.
Perhaps this conclusion was necessary for EDF to prove its technological incapacity to master and build plants quickly and well.
For its part, prudence and above all the survival of RTE required this conclusion. One cannot be surprised
* *
Silicon trend still unclear
L R AS Published on Monday 25 October 2021 - n° 379 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°379
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
Modification of the specifications for the first period of the Innovation PP2 call for tenders
The terms of reference for the first period of the Innovation PP2 call for tenders have been modified at the last minute. This leads to changes in the dates for the submission of offers and for the collection of documents from the DREALs.
Amending specifications for the first period of the PPE2 Innovation call for tenders
* *
THE TREND
The price outlook in a few weeks would be a 15% to 20% increase in panels according to pvXchange, which estimates that they would be the last before the end of the year. However, the use of the force majeure clause by the five major manufacturers gives them the right to call into question contracts signed some six months ago, and to modify recent contracts so as not to suffer losses by selling for less than their cost price after the increases.
pvXchange announces that the negotiations will be quite different according to the volume of purchases made from the manufacturer: small customers will suffer the maximum increase or constraints (postponement or splitting of deliveries), whereas large customers will find a sympathetic ear from the producers and will be less sacrificed at first.
Future large price increases according to pvXchange
Producer prices on 20 October: prices slow down in the supply chain
Silicon prices have been "upgraded" after the government's decision to restrict energy and thus the means to obtain silicon. Wafer manufacturers are trying to pass on the increases. Cell producers are trying to limit the price increases of wafer manufacturers because panel assemblers are confronted with buyers who refuse the increases. With the pressure from upstream, they are often forced to review their prices... For the time being, there is no end in sight to this upward spiral, which suits the producers in the sector.
Prices in the PV sector have soared
* *
THE WORLD :
Disruptions in prices and production lead to uncertainty about the volume of installations in China in 2021
Although the installation figures for China at the end of September are different, they show a slight increase ahead of the traditional Q4 commissioning rush. Unlike in other years, it is difficult to envisage a connection volume for the year because it is not possible to assess the carryover of installations to 2022 due to the much higher prices of panels; because it is not known how manufacturers will be able to respond to the "orders" of large Chinese contractors close to the political authorities. So will the 50 GW installed in China in 2021 be reached?
The nine-month figures for Chinese installations are different
* *
There are two ways to read China's energy restriction: it is either a response to US import restrictions or a shift towards accelerated modernisation of the Chinese economy
The text presenting the restriction of energy use here is well explained and detailed. Is this to convince international opinion? For what was the need for China to tighten its energy policy as winter approached? Was it in response to the American boycott of Xinjiang products? Does it correspond to a severe shift to rapidly modernise the Chinese economy? Is it to force it to pay attention to energy expenses, so that local actors voluntarily adopt photovoltaic installations that would allow them to be more autonomous and less subject to the decisions of the political power?
One has to admire the Chinese art of seizing opportunities: after economic price hikes, the world is experiencing political price hikes
Energy use restrictions in China
The energy shortage will encourage Chinese companies to equip themselves with panels
* *
Disruptions in panel production influence power purchase agreement prices
PPA prices in the US have increased by almost 15% in 2020. Observers believe that this price will rise further due to supply difficulties and also interconnection difficulties. Nevertheless, the price per MWh remains very low compared to the grid price.
PPA prices in the US have increased in 2020 and will increase further
* *
If you add up the gains from a 900 MW solar installation, they become considerable
US researchers have tried to quantify the contribution and cost of a 150 MW installation over six years in the state of Michigan. They arrive at a particularly high gain due to the income provided to the employees of the installations.
However, it is not known how these studies are done and on what assumptions they are based. This weakens their conclusion.
Profit from the 150 MW installation in the USA
* *
Photovoltaic auctions rejected in Spain
The previous Spanish auctions saw photovoltaics take all the megawatts offered for sale. This time the big developers abstained. Specific bids for small areas, ready-to-build projects or even large-scale projects were all shunned. There were two reasons for this: the government's decision not to leave the windfall gains from high prices on the open market in the hands of the developers, and the uncertainty about the development of panel prices in a context of unlimited price increases.
The results of the Spanish auction are commented on by the industry
* *
Charging for energy supply when demand is minimal?
There is talk in Australia of taxing those who feed solar energy into the grid in the middle of the day when demand is low. As long as a quarter of Australians have solar panels, their input is limited and can be managed. However, the trend among the population is to install panels to get cheaper energy. If we get to 50% of the population with solar panels, how will we manage? The electricity companies want the disruption or extra costs caused by these large injections of energy to be sanctioned or taxed. Of course, the owners of PV installations do not want this
Too many residential installations will create problems in Australia
* *
THE MISCELLANEOUS
Covid disruption persists in shipping
In two months, the situation in the cost of shipping has not really changed. The congestion of certain ports, the absence of containers held up somewhere, the lack of alternative transport to the major shipping companies, the twelve to eighteen month delay in fitting out a new vessel... The result is that the cost of transporting goods to Europe or the United States is 14 and 10 times higher than it was 18 months ago. The situation will not improve in the near future.
* *
New study shows that rooftop solar installations can meet all energy needs
Study after study shows that residential and commercial rooftops could produce more energy than is consumed. Of course, good sunshine is needed and this study should be taken for what it is: a path towards the appropriation of the energy produced by those who use it. Only two constraints remain for these studies to move from theory to reality, and to guide consumer choices: on the one hand, that the cost price of this energy becomes less expensive than that of the grid. On the other hand, the intermittency must be resolved.
Even with these comments, which defer their use, it must be remembered that roofs will be the receptacles of solar energy in the years to come.
Other analysis in favour of rooftop installations
* *
L R AS Published on Monday 18 October 2021 - n° 378 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°378
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
REC Solar project resurfaces with a new shareholderThe project has resurfaced after several quarters of silence. This is because it has changed fundamentally. In 2020, the company was owned by the Chinese.
AS Published on Monday 11 October 2021 - n° 378 - Categories:Thread of the Week, various sectors
IEA says progress on RE is insufficient
Ahead of the COP26 conference in Glasgow which starts at the end of this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes its latest World Energy Outlook
The IEA estimates that current progress
L R AS Published on Monday 11 October 2021 - n° 377 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°377
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
The panorama of photovoltaic France
Photovoltaic installations increased significantly in the second quarter of 2021, as in thefirst. In six months, they have already exceeded the total number of connections in 2020. This is thanks to the large surfaces (over 17 MW). The study opens horizons on the transfer of smaller installations (less than 17 MW) to larger surfaces (more than 17 MW), self-consumption at the end of June, the queue. In short, a panorama of photovoltaic France.
France's photovoltaic situation in the 2nd quarter of 2021
* *
The decree and the order easing the formalities for installations of less than 500 kWp have been published
The decree and the order raising the threshold for projects to 500 kWp have finally been published. It avoids the need for installations below this threshold to go through the tender procedure. They also benefit from a guaranteed income. The professional associations are delighted and believe that this will significantly increase the number of solar installations on large roofs. Maybe it will!
The points contained in the decree + the 500 kWp decree
The trade unions are satisfied with the 500 kWp window
* *
The Senate's opinion on the review of PV contracts concluded between 2006 and 2010
The Senate's study on the review of photovoltaic contracts concluded between 2006 and 2010 is harsh on the government. It speaks of unpreparedness, lack of knowledge of the data, and overestimation of the amounts that would be recovered by the public authorities. The report is damning
The Senate's opinion on the review of PV contracts from 2006 to 2010
* *
THE TREND
The photovoltaic world is affected by rising prices or by the shortage of panels. A number of projects are postponed or abandoned
The advantage of Intersolar is that it brings together the various partners in the industry in one place. They speak spontaneously and almost without a filter. Almost everyone interviewed said that the industry was already experiencing a restriction in access to panels; that developers or builders had to deal with supply difficulties in the first nine months of the year. Many projects have been postponed.
This was said before the new restriction on panel supply that will result from the energy shortage hampering silicon and ultimately panel production. This situation will persist until the 3rd quarter of 2022
Numerous postponements of projects. The difficulties will last until the 3rd quarter of 2022
The first day of Intersolar Europe in Munich
* *
Whether it's China's fault for buying up the available gas or coal, the fault of the covid which caused a fall in hydrocarbon prices a year ago, prompting gas producers to stop extracting it, or the fault of poor anticipation of winter needs after a winter season that used up the various resources, gas prices, and soon electricity prices, are soaring, imposing restrictions on energy-intensive populations and companies. Solar is of little use in the current period. Wind power may contribute a little more to the demand. Gas underlines its unavoidable place in the energy mix of the various countries. And if this global energy crisis is anything to go by.
The rise in gas and electricity means we have to reinvent ourselves
Several exhibitors presented solar tiles at Intersolar. Everyone presented their products, but no one mentioned the interest of these tiles compared to panels in terms of technology, yield, practicality or cost. One could consider that these tiles are the way for some young companies to attract attention. But when Meyer Burger announces its own tile model in 2022, it is no longer a mere gadget. It is not yet known what the respective advantages of the two types of products are and whether the tiles will find an audience.
Solar roof tile made of safety glass
At Intersolar, Meyer Burger presented its panels, tiles and complaints
* *
MANUFACTURERS:
One of the themes of Intersolar: the industrial revival of photovoltaics
By bringing the industry together, Intersolar served as a sounding board. The conversations revolved around the need for an industrial revival in European photovoltaics. Some and others said that we really need to relaunch the production of components and reconstitute an ecosystem that produces all the elements necessary for the production of panels manufactured in Europe
Was it the example of Meyer Burger that inspired these reflections? In any case, the company has dashed the hopes of the industrial candidates. It has stated that the government of the region where the factories are located, Merkel's government, and the European authorities have not lifted a finger to help this initiative. In the difficulties that this company is facing and given this context, Meyer Burger is looking for a more favourable ecosystem in the United States. For once there was a serious candidate to produce panels, nothing was done for him. He understood and published his conclusions. The need for local production of panels will continue to be discussed in Europe for a long time to come. Meyer Burger has understood!
The wish of the industry: the industrial revival of PV in Europe
At Intersolar, Meyer Burger presented his panels, his tiles and his complaints
* *
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT :
Is it a gimmick or a serious possibility? Can used ink cartridges be used to make solar cells?
Chinese researchers claim to have made perovskite solar cells by reusing used laser ink cartridges. This may sound like a gimmick, as the Chinese are not in the habit of disclosing the results of their research, especially when it may be promising, as this could be the case.
Manufacture of perovskite solar cells by printing with an efficiency of 11.8
* *
MISCELLANEOUS
Solar power plants would reduce the temperature around them
It has to be prestigious universities that say it: solar power plants are said to have the ability to cool not only the space that the panels cover, but also to influence a wider environment, from a hundred metres (with a difference of 2.3° Celsius), to 700 metres away. This has effects on germination and on the loss of biodiversity
This first observation will certainly be followed by others. We will try to determine the extent of this cooling, its real effects, the plants to be used in the vicinity of power stations, those to be avoided, their life cycle, etc. A new field of experimentation is opening up.
Power plants are cooling their immediate environment!
* *
L R AS Published on Tuesday 5 October 2021 - n° 376 - Categories:Thread of the Week
Le Fil de la Semaine n°376 of 5 October 2021
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
New standards apply to photovoltaics
Three texts specify:
- An order of 10 September 2021 (JO 22 Sept. 2021, text n° 7) subjects foreign investments in France in technologies involved in the production of renewable energy to prior authorisation by the minister in charge of the economy.
- The call for projects procedure for electricity or biogas production facilities using renewable energy or innovative technologies.
- A new decree in the Official Journal specifies the procedure for future calls for projects dedicated to "innovative renewable energy".
Publications in the Official Journal
* *
The TotalEnergies group has presented its product strategy for the coming years
The oil group does not intend to appear to be the bad pupil at the next COP 26. It has to show that the group has taken an unquestionable turn towards renewable energies and that it intends to play a major role. Hence its reaffirmation of its renewable energy target of 35 GW by 2025 (compared with 10 GW by the end of 2021). However, despite the amount of investment that will be made, the group expects that electricity will only represent 15% of its turnover in 2030. Gas and oil will account for 80% of its sales. The management of TotalEnergies believes in the future of hydrocarbons!
TotalEnergies' strategy and outlook
* *
THE TREND :
Electricity shortages upstream of the industry are disrupting the entire production chain. We no longer know what the price and quantities will be within a week!
The price of silicon metal (the material from which solar grade silicon is produced) has doubled in the last week due to power shortages and the retention of sellers. Of course, solar grade silicon is suffering from this increase, which is having an impact downstream. The entire industry no longer knows what the price will be the following week, and no longer knows what quantities will be available. There is general uncertainty about the future. Hence the call by the five largest panel manufacturers to stop ordering panels.
The photovoltaic industry at the production of September 29
* *
When manufacturers ask their customers not to buy or to postpone their purchases, it is because the situation is deteriorating or becoming serious. However, this is what the world's five largest panel producers have just asked their customers in an open letter. This means that they are expecting the worst in the next few weeks as buyers still believe they can place orders; that they are planning to source panels to complete their installations before the end of the year; or that they have not yet realised that even with higher prices they will not be able to get the panels they want. Is it only because of the much higher prices that these five manufacturers are reacting? Do they foresee a production shortfall due to the energy shortage? They do not indicate the underlying reasons for their message, but already the Norwegian Scatec has announced that it will have to suspend two contracts because profitability is being affected by the higher prices!
The French view of energy is not the world's: by 2020, there will not have been a single new nuclear gigawatt installed. This compares with 256 GW of new renewable energy. There is a good reason for this: the price of the nuclear kilowatt hour has risen by 33% in recent years.
The nuclear-renewable energy match in 2020
* *
THE WORLD :
China is facing a severe energy shortage, and this before the annual peak consumption period!
The press is reporting factory closures, power cuts, and night shifts to spread out energy consumption. The electricity shortage seems severe and does not only affect silicon production. No one is talking about the extent of the shortage, or its impact on panel production. What is known is that the price of silicon has risen by 9% in the last week, and that its scarcity will push prices to a stratospheric level
China's electricity rationing spreads
The causes of the shortage of silicon and therefore panels
* *
Providing aid or subsidy to recreate an industry always gets good results
How to revive the US PV industry? There is the solution of waiting for companies to fill in the gaps and gradually build up a complete industrial fabric. This can take many, many years and success is not guaranteed. The other solution, which works more quickly and provides an almost immediate result, is to grant a bonus or tax advantage for any production created on American soil (in this case, in the photovoltaic field in the broad sense). If, in addition, there is customs protection against unregulated or dumped imports, the conditions are ripe for the resurgence of the industry. resurgence of the industry. Even Meyer Burger, who has just moved to Germany, finds the US policy attractive and the tax benefits worth taking.to take. He announced that he was moving across the Atlantic!
SEMA bill likely to be passed soon
* *
Here too, the Indian government's aid and subsidies are ensuring vocations!
The Indian government's subsidies for installing photovoltaic production units are attracting vocations! Half of the companies that have applied have never worked in photovoltaics! It is not only the assembly of panels that is in demand, but also the production of silicon, wafers, etc. Companies have five years of aid to launch and make their production units profitable
Enthusiastic reception for the installation of photovoltaic plants in India
* *
MANUFACTURERS :
Apart from ministerial speeches and verbal encouragement, Meyer Burger is struggling with supply difficulties. He wants to leave!
Meyer Burger is facing a shortage of components in its panel production in Germany. Only a few months into its operations, the management realised that it needed to find customs protection in the US and possibly subsidies to expand its business. Note that the company has not yet announced that it is withdrawing from Europe. Is this just a delayed announcement?
Meyer Burger understands that it has to go to the US
* *
L R AS Published on Monday 27 September 2021 - n° 375 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review, 27 September
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Texts to read this week :
FRANCE :
The 2022 budget of the Ministry of Ecological Transition
The 2022 Finance Law increases the budget of this ministry by 3%. Some are satisfied with the boost to the budget available for the energy transition; others, like CLER, feel that not enough is being done to renovate buildings and bring them up to low consumption levels.
50 billion for the Ministry of Energy Transition by 2022
CLER criticizes the government's energy transition policy
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The 500 kW window is to be installed soon
During Enerplan's Photovoltaic Self-Consumption University, clarifications were given to this tariff order which is to be published "soon"
The 500 kW tariff order is called "desired".
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Systovi's success in the residential market
By focusing on residential installations, the company is benefiting from the development of self-consumption, as the installations must be reliable, concerted and local. This encourages the company to offer panels using the latest cell formats and therefore with a high power output
Growing demand for Systovi panels
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Voltalia is significantly increasing its operational installations and has a substantial project portfolio
The 55% increase in operating installations and good weather conditions led to a 72% increase in half-year turnover. The operating margin is at zero as the first half of the year is never as favourable as the second half which benefits from the Brazilian trade winds. The company maintains its EBITDA margin targets for 2021, with the contribution from the disposal of assets.
Voltalia in the first half: strong growth, lower margin, 2021 targets confirmed
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Energy prices have doubled or tripled in a year. What are we to make of this?
The doubling or tripling of the cost of energy in one year will have a significant effect on the economies of different countries. Predicting who will benefit is still premature as we do not know the duration or the price trend. On the other hand, many sectors are already suffering. Others are benefiting. One geopolitical analyst is still reluctant to comment.
High energy prices are more of a threat than an opportunity for RE
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Panel production in Europe requires an environment that supplies components to manufacturers
There is no longer a photovoltaic industry in Europe. Everything has to be imported, cells, cables, junction boxes, etc. from Asia. So there are transport costs which add to the costs. Apart from these necessary imports, the cost of panels produced in Europe is not much higher than the imported product. Therefore, if we really want a photovoltaic industry in Europe, we have to rebuild everything, and if possible concentrate the suppliers in one place. PvXchange concludes that even Meyer Burger's experiment will have difficulty succeeding on a purely economic level, as it lacks local supplies.
PvXchange questions whether Europe can free itself from Chinese production
The carbon footprint of European versus Chinese panels
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PHOTOVOLTAIC IN THE WORLD :
Photovoltaic installations in China at the end of August 2021
There has not been a rush of installations in China in the first two quarters. Will there be an acceleration in the last months of the year?
22 GW of solar installed in China at the end of August
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US desire to master the storage sector, the missing link in photovoltaics
The US likes to set targets and strive to achieve them. It is true that storage is the missing link in developing the use of renewable energy. So subsidies and research and development will be launched to achieve this goal.
US government objective: to reduce the cost of storage by 90% in ten years
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India is investing heavily in panel production equipment. Modernisation is proceeding rapidly
The photovoltaic exhibition in India shows the rapid evolution of manufacturers who are increasing their production capacities and moving towards high-end panels. As if to demonstrate the willingness of Indian manufacturers to modernise, a Chinese equipment manufacturer has sold 10 GW of equipment to local manufacturers, of which 3 GW is already installed and 7 GW will be commissioned in thefirst half of 2022. It is not known whether there are several such large sales by other Chinese OEMs. What is certain is that production, and perhaps productivity, will rise in the coming quarters in India.
Indian manufacturers are investing and offering powerful panels
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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT:
Fraunhofer ISE proposes an alternative to cells with energy collection bars (bus-bars)
Rather than sticking to the usual production methods (cells with energy harvesting bars), the German institute Fraunhofer ISE has designed an alternative energy harvesting scheme, where a thin aluminium foil acts as an energy collector. This system reduces the consumption of silver paste, increases the surface area that receives energy, and reduces costs. The institute asked the equipment manufacturer Manz to develop a machine using this technology.
Placing cells on aluminium foil to reduce costs
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STORAGE
Introducing the residential battery in the US
Although the basics of the residential battery are well known, a presentation is always useful. In particular, it indicates that the life expectancy is between 5 and 15 years in the US, depending on the Sunrun installer. This wide range is due to installation and usage conditions
How long does a residential storage battery last?
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L R AS Published on Monday 20 September 2021 - n° 374 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Weekly Wire n° 374
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
FRANCE :
Local and regional authorities will be able to contribute financially to renewable energy projects
By introducing EU law into French law, the Parliament has authorised local authorities to finance renewable energy projects in a participatory manner. This will increase the weight of local authorities in projects as they will provide the land and money. They may even no longer need to call on a development company.
The application decrees are still needed
Next participatory financing of communities in France
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The MaPrimRenov' programme was successful in 2021. It is extended
After 500,000 applications processed in 2021, the Prime Minister announced the extension of the MaPrimRenov' programme for the year 2022 with a budget of 2 billion euros
Renewal of the MaPrimRenov' programme in 2022
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Self-consumption fails to take off in France
The threshold of 100,000 self-consumption installations was reached at the beginning of the year. Enedis estimates that the figure will double within two years. The installations are mainly residential. The number of collective self-consumption remains around one hundred. Self-consumption remains marginal in France
LAccording to Enedis, self-consumption in France in the first quarter of 2021
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THE TREND:
A new reduction in silicon production in China
Under the pretext of insufficient rainfall, the Chinese government is imposing a 90% reduction in silicon production in the 4th quarter in the Yunnan region. Yet this province produces 20% of the world's silicon. A major risk for global supply in the coming months
The main province outside Xinjiang where silicon is manufactured is reducing its production
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After steel, copper and sea freight, energy is becoming increasingly expensive and the situation will continue throughout the winter.
The price of electricity has risen significantly in 2021. This would be due to a gas supply deficit, which is global. The situation is serious because the period of intensive gas use starts with this winter. The already high prices will continue to rise. In addition to the price of gas, there is the cost of the carbon emitted by gas-fired power stations!
Good people are advocating the use of renewable energies. This will not provide electricity for the next few months. Moreover, the supply of panels is likely to be disrupted in volume and certainly in price!
The record price of electricity should accelerate renewables
* *
BloombergNEF's global demand forecasts are at the high end of the range indicated earlier. However, this is a current view as very recent events will reduce the forecasted figures
The research firm forecasts demand for panels in 2021 to be close to 200 GW, an increase of one third on the 2020 figure. However, it predicts a small increase in panel installations worldwide during the 2020s. Is he right when demand is so intense? Or realistic?
BloombergNEF forecasts for 2021 and 2022
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PHOTOVOLTAIC IN THE WORLD:
Silicon is a two-power issue, with the trump cards in China's hands
The increase in silicon production should have gradually cancelled out the recent shortage. However, US measures against forced labour by Uighurs and a possible import ban on all products made in Xinjiang threaten global silicon supplies, especially as China is artificially reducing production in the second largest silicon-producing region. A new shortage of raw material is looming.
The situation of silicon in the PV industry and the Sino-American conflict
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THE WORLD:
By allowing China to hold a virtual monopoly on panel production, the US is forced to depend on the Chinese
American politicians thought they were doing the right thing by giving China a lesson in human rights regarding the working conditions of the Uighurs in Xinjiang. However, by banning imports of silicon-based photovoltaic products from Hoshine Silicon, and by wanting to extend this ban to other Asian regions, the Americans have put themselves in a trap: either they go back, or they don't receive any more panels
This trap is clear as the Biden Administration proposes to accelerate panel installations to reduce energy costs and transform the country. How can they get to 40% solar without Chinese panels?
How can they loosen the stranglehold the US has placed on itself?
Details of the US study to achieve 40% RE in demand
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Large-scale plants still account for almost all US solar installations
45% increase in US solar installations in Q2 over comparable period in 2020. There are many projects under construction, especially in large plants, for completion in late 2021, early 2022. Provided that developers find the panels available on the market ...
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PHOTOVOLTAIC MANUFACTURERS:JinkoSolar weathered the shortages well. Its gross margin was maintained in the second quarter
The manufacturer was not affected by the silicon restrictions if the stable sales volumes (and prices) in Q2 are anything to go by. The company is very confident for the second half of the year
JinkoSolar in Q2 2021: stable sales
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MISCELLANEOUS :
A description of the two parts of photovoltaic equipment: panels and inverters
A bit of pedagogy for those who do not know the life of the panels and inverters thoroughly
The life of residential solar panels
What is the life span of a residential solar inverter?
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L R AS Published on Monday 13 September 2021 - n° 373 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Weekly Wire n°373 of 13 September 2021
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week :
THE TRENDE
We see the end of the silicon shortageSo many new plants are planned that the available silicon capacity could produce 250 GW of panels. This could lead to a sharp drop in prices
The price of silicon (and therefore panels) could fall from October
The price of panels at the end of 2021- beginning of 2022 will depend on the production of silicon
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PHOTOVOLTAIC :
Followers are in a fast growing photovoltaic niche,
The United States remains the country with the largest tracker installations. The use of this type of equipment can be found in various countries such as Brazil, Spain, Chile and of course China. Shortages or price increases of steel or components in particular have not stopped its use, which is also spreading to other parts of the world. The energy savings achieved explain the high growth rate, which should continue in the coming years.
The adaptations and improvements made by the manufacturers make the market very open to new manufacturers, as needs evolve and technologies are perfected
Lhe followers in 2020: strong growth, rising prices, installations spread around the world
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DNV's assessment of the future of renewable energy
The research company DNV is more confident than last year about the future of photovoltaics.
It believes that solar installations will multiply and gradually become the main source of energy. Together with wind power, it would account for 70% of electricity demand
He regrets that the pandemic has not been used to rebuild a new, greener economy using more renewable energy. He predicts that there will be more and more zero electricity prices
DNV speaks out on solar installations 2050!
* *
The price of electricity is at a high level in the market. This is partly due to the price of gas
Gas supply will be limited in Europe during the coming winter. The price of gas could reach a record high. If you add the carbon tax, the kilowatt hour is at a record high. This is reflected in the price of electricity on the spot market. It is not to be expected that prices will fall in the near future. This situation creates an opportunity to sign energy contracts
The price per megawatt hour could stabilise at around €100
In various European countries, wholesale prices have reached record levels
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PHOTOVOLTAIC :
The debate on the choice of the two-sided panel or the single-sided panel is not yet decided!
Half a year after the launch of two-sided panels, people are still wondering whether they should pay 6% more to buy a two-sided panel. Is it better to stay with the good old single-sided sign? This debate shows how difficult it is to make a decision, because the result of this question is the result of many factors to be taken into account. The American company Clean Energy Associates has launched an in-depth and detailed research. The American Clean Energy Associates has launched an in-depth and detailed study and has published its results, which are not unequivocal and even less certain. This organisation remains circumspect about the results of its study
Is it better to buy a single-sided panel or a double-sided panel?
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IN THE WORLD :
50 MW plants only achieve a competitive kWh. The UK wants to draw the consequences
Having found that the 50 MW limit is a bit low for achieving profitable solar power plants, Great Britain is considering raising the limit. It would be a good idea for France to follow this British approach
In Great Britain, the 50 MW limit should be raised
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What target for solar installations should the US set for 2035?
If an official US department, the Department of Energy, conducts a study on the possibility of increasing solar energy production from the current 3% to 40% within the next 15 years, it is clear that the US will not be able to meet its target. If an official US agency, the Department of Energy, is conducting a study into the possibility of increasing solar energy production from the current 3% to 40% within the next 15 years, it is because the idea has received official approval from the top, and the shift of the economy to solar energy is being seriously considered. But setting targets is good, taking the means to achieve them is better!
How to achieve 40% RE by 2035 in the US?
* *
SMA revises its 2021 forecasts downwards: caution or deteriorating economic conditions?
When it published its half-yearly accounts a few weeks ago (before the start of the new school year), SMA was very confident. The last few weeks have seen a number of supplier and customer defections. Now the forecasts for 2021 have been revised downwards. Is this due to caution? Did the economic situation deteriorate sharply between June and September? Above all, is this an isolated phenomenon or a more general situation?
SMA complains about the defection of suppliers and customers
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R AS Published on Tuesday 7 September 2021 - n° 372 - Categories:Thread of the Week
The Week in Review n°372
THIS WEEK'S NEWS HIGHLIGHTS.
The texts to read this week:
The French authorities are increasing the amount of calls for tenders while breaking them down into small tranches. All categories benefit from this: ground-based power plants, innovative projects, installations on greenhouses, on car parks, for self-consumption. Going further, the Prime Minister says he wants to see massive development of renewable energies, announcing a budget of 25 billion euros spread over five years to create 25 GW of new renewable energies
France launches calls for tenders for 1.6 GW of renewable energy
Prime Minister says he wants massive development of renewable energy
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How will we make the energy transition?
There is a lot of talk about renewable energy production systems (panels, wind turbines). The economist Jean Pisani-Ferry broadens the debate to the economy, to the difficulties that will arise in various sectors that will have to shut down factories or professions in favour of new activities. He stresses that major investments will be needed, which means spending, and that consumption will have to be curbed, in order to develop or expand new activities.
Jean Pisani-Ferry analyses the Energy Transition
* *
A record number of solar installations in thefirst half of the year
Is this an indication of a change in the trend in solar installations in France? The number of solar installations in the first half of the year is a pleasant surprise. Was there a shift in installations from 2020 to 2021? We will soon find out. In any case,
1,367 MW of solar power were installed in France in the first half of 2021
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PHOTOVOLTAIC IN THE WORLD:
The world is waiting for the arrival of N-type cells. Only they do not seem ready to replace mono-PERC cells
Mono-PERC cells achieve a conversion rate of 23.5 to 24%. N-type cells achieve 24.5% (with TOPCon technology) and 25% with heterojunction. The difference between P-type and N-type cells is not sufficient because the production of the former is well controlled and rather cheap. The N-type cells still pose production or cost problems
Is the N-type cell becoming competitive?
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What happened to silicon in the first half of the year? We are starting to see it
We are starting to get a better idea of what happened to silicon in the first half of the year. Production increased by 30% according to the Chinese administration, but wafer manufacturers had increased their capacity so much that silicon was in short supply. The increase in wafer production was reflected in the manufacture of cells and then panels
Some figures on silicon supply and demand in the first half of the year
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European authorities raise 2030 targets again
As a result of the IPCC report, climate change or the actions of climate activists, the European Commission has just raised its targets for 2030 again, proposing a 40% share of renewable energy and a reduction in carbon emissions in the Union. The proposed targets are laudable. Will they be met?
The EU will increase the share of renewable energy to 40% by 2030. Another boost!
* *
Chinese authorities focus on residential installations
The Chinese government is changing. Up until 2020, they favoured large solar power plants. Last year, they abolished state aid for these installations, considering that they could now be profitable on their own and because the plants were far from the places of use. In 2021, they are paying particular attention to residential installations, which they will subsidise. This policy will reduce transmission losses...
Stimulating residential installations in China
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Development of renewable energy industries and facilities must drive US recovery
President Biden has launched a major policy of investment in infrastructure and renewable energy development. He has put in place some measures to accelerate installations and plans to extend support and subsidies for renewable energy. Like many other countries, he wants to achieve a carbon-free economy by 2050. This will involve stimulating industries that manufacture solar panels or wind turbines
Mobilisation to develop RE in the United States
The reasons for solar installation: ITC, standards, grid connection
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PHOTOVOLTAIC MANUFACTURERS:Half-yearly accounts of major Chinese manufacturers show strong sales growth or else increased profit margin
For the past year, the world has been held in suspense by the silicon shortage, by price hikes, by the policy of panel manufacturers who wanted to make themselves look good to users by claiming to be holding down prices by restricting cell purchases. These lower purchases were to force wafer or cell manufacturers to exercise restraint. This was the language of the first half of 2021. The publication of the accounts of the few listed companies undermines this soothing language: the three main panel producers have increased their half-yearly shipments by 80% over the comparable period of 2020. Other companies in the industry have increased their profit margins.
In the first half of the year, JA Solar increased its turnover by 48%.
LONGi inH1 increased its gross margin despite the silicon shortage!
Ranking of panel shippers in thefirst half of the year
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MISCELLANEOUS :
Will artificial intelligence be used in photovoltaics? What will it bring?
There is a lot of talk about artificial intelligence (AI). Will it also affect photovoltaics? The author believes so, because AI can process a lot of data. The processing of this data would make it possible to improve knowledge of the installation, to better predict production, and even to know which panels are the most efficient. However, it is necessary to master the quality of the data and know how to use it...
What can artificial intelligence be used for in the photovoltaic field?